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The Fastest Warming on Earth

Image by Emma Francis is licensed by Unsplash.
Image by Emma Francis is licensed by Unsplash.

The Fastest Warming on Earth

By Robert Hunziker

In the High Arctic scientists discovered million-year-old methane (CH4) trapped under some of the world’s mightiest glaciers detected via unprecedented groundwater springs. Analyses of 123 springs found CH4 in all but one. As the massive glaciers recede, space opens at the edge of permafrost, releasing ancient methane. This is one more totally unexpected global warming headache.

Methane detected in the High Arctic puts a big hole in the Global Methane Pledge of more than 100 countries that agreed to cut emissions 30% by 2030. It’s an add-on that nobody knows how to deal with.

The High Arctic location is Svalbard, Norway (pop. 2,642) which is the fastest warming region of the planet only 700 miles from the North Pole. It’s ironic that the fastest warming is the farthest northern human outpost, deep into the Arctic North.

“On the Dot with David Schechter,” CBS News released a 45-minute film December 4th, 2023, documenting the warmest place on Earth: Ancient Methane Escaping from Melting Glaciers Could Potentially Warm the Planet Even More.

The film is noteworthy for its elegant beauty of landscape and simplicity of explaining a very complex climate system. With a soft tell-all, David Schechter skillfully interviews climate scientists at the top of the world, thus revealing what every world citizen should be aware of, the inescapable conclusion that climate change is far and away our biggest threat, a menacing transformation of Earth’s climate system that may, or may not, be too late to halt or reverse depending upon whom Schechter interviewed at any given sequence of the film.

Nevertheless, in a very straightforward easy-to-understand manner, the underlying message of the film is a climate system that has radically changed into a threatening monster filled with sudden unforeseen risks and ultimately the potential of a metaphoric runaway freight train barreling down a mountainside. The risks are only too evident, prompting a very straightforward question: Is it too late?

The answer found in the film is yes and no, depending.

Radical temperature changes are at the core. According to the film: Winters in the US are 3.7°F warmer than a couple of decades ago. In sharp contrast, Svalbard is a nerve-rattling 13.6°F warmer, bringing in its wake bigger and more frequent avalanches and landslides than ever before whilst simultaneously massive floods, massive drought, and massive wildfires clobber ecosystems thousands of miles away in Europe, in North America, in China, throughout the world. Everything with climate change is now on a massive scale. This is different than the past.

Wide-ranging climate change was beyond anything Svalbard was prepared for, e.g., homes destroyed by avalanches. Subsequently, Svalbard has been adapting by erecting avalanche barriers and walls.

The Ny-Alesund Research Station based in Svalbard is where scientists from around the world gather to study the High Arctic. It’s the world’s northern-most research facility with 35 year-round residents swelling to over 100 scientists that fly in from around the world during summer months when sunlight is 24/7.

A sculpture of renowned Arctic explorer Roald Amundsen (1872-1928) greets visitors at the centre of Ny-Alesund.

Jack Kohler, glaciologist, Norwegian Polar Institute, has studied glaciers in the region for 27 years… a significant glacier of his focus has retreated 4 kilometers over his tenure. At the water’s edge, the glacier is as tall as a 15-story building and 2 miles wide.

Kohler says colleagues throughout the world are seeing similar effects of climate change: (1) it’s warming a lot (2) there is considerably more melt (3) there’s no compensating increase in precipitation (4) winter snow season is shrinking because of a rapid increase in temperature. Indeed, it is an unnerving worldwide phenomenon.

At the heart of the global warming issue, according to Jack Kohler: “It’s happening really fast!”

The worldwide impact of sea water rise will be on the march. Accordingly, at current melt rates, it’s estimated sea-level rise in the US over the next 30 years will increase 10-14 inches on the East Coast, 14-18 inches on the Gulf Coast, and 4-8 inches on the West Coast. Florida is already seeing a troublesome impact, raising streets by 1-3 feet in Miami Beach. High tides become high floods.

The High Arctic is also home to Zeppelin Observatory at the top of Mount Zeppelin manned by Ove Hermansen, senior scientist, Norwegian Institute for Air Research. Super sensitive equipment at the mountain top measures gases in the atmosphere. Zeppelin Observatory coordinates its findings with a network of worldwide observatories, e.g., samples sent to Boulder, Colorado, National Center for Atmospheric Research. CO2 is 50% above pre-industrial since the 1980s with methane CH4 up 165%. If such growth rates continue, all bets are off for a global warming soft landing, more likely an overheated planet, eliminating human comfort zones across equatorial regions, and beyond.

Longyearbyen is the administrative centre for Svalbard where Anna Sjoblom serves as a meteorologist at the University Center in Longyearbyen. In her view, the Arctic is “the refrigerator or freezer for the rest of the world” but unfortunately thawing way too fast, as global warming works double-time radically distorting the crucial jet stream at 20,000-40,000 feet altitude that, in turn, negatively impacts the entire Northern Hemisphere with atmospheric rivers and stationary heat waves that do not let up, throwing the climate system for a loop. According to Sjoblom: “We are getting a new type of normal in the world that nobody is ready for.”

Dr. Andy Hodson, glaciologist at University Center Svalbard has linked rapid disappearance of glacial ice to release of methane from deep underground. Glacial retreat is the driver of methane gas emitting via unprecedented pools of water on surface where none existed before. In the central region underground springs bring CH4 to surface as 123 of 124 streams were found with methane. As a result, this increases the risks of a global warming breakout, conditions are there to impact global warming far beyond current expectations, such behavior is now underway.

Svalbard’s scientists are witnessing the fastest ever climate change. For some of them, it seems to be “too late.” Yet, for others, after experiencing the world’s most rapid rate of global warming, a sense of urgency “to do something” overwhelms. They can only hope that the film will serve as a wake-up call to leaders of the world to take the problem much more seriously.
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This article was originally published on February 23, 2024 © Counterpunch
Robert Hunziker lives in Los Angeles and can be reached at rlhunziker@gmail.com.

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67 Countries Banned This Toxic Product – But the EPA Says: “Go for it!”

Photo by Samuel Fyfe on Unsplash
Photo by Samuel Fyfe is licensed by Unsplash.

67 Countries Banned This Toxic Product –But the EPA Says: “Go for it!”

By Robert Hunziker

Sixty-seven (67) countries have banned paraquat, a toxic chemical used to control weeds that was discovered in the 1950s subsequently widely used throughout the world in agriculture. Despite a deadly toxic reputation, it’s still used throughout America. Moreover, it’s a cheap effective product used as a common pesticide by third-world countries that do not proactively regulate chemical products.

As of 2024, the US EPA, once again, reapproved paraquat in the face of stiff public opposition and criticism via a slew of negative scientific studies. With more than 60 major developed countries banning the product, why is the United States still onboard?

Syngenta is the manufacturer of paraquat. Syngenta was purchased by a state-owned Chinese company named ChemChina in 2017 for $43 billion. Revenues run $20B, and it’s very profitable. This is a prime example of Chinese Communist Party capitalism hard at work.

Astonishingly, and inexplicably, China prohibits paraquat use in its own backyard, eight (8) years ago the state government banned its use, but China shamelessly allows production of the chemical for export to third-world countries and the United States.

China banned paraquat, 2016.

China buys Syngenta in 2017 to produce and sell paraquat to the world outside of China.

The UK banned paraquat, 2007.

The EU banned paraquat, 2007.

Sixty-seven (67) countries have banned paraquat.

The US EPA reapproves paraquat, 2023-24.

The US EPA reapproval of the paraquat product Gramoxone is subject to further review. There’s plenty to review, for example: “Syngenta deliberately hid important scientific knowledge about possible serious health effects caused by paraquat, a product and herbicide banned in Europe because it is so toxic that a single sip can kill.” (Source: EU Lobby Profile: Syngenta, A Toxic ‘World Champion’, Corporate Europe Observatory, October 20, 2022.

According to an article posted in the National Institutes of Health, National Library of Medicine, as of December 2019, entitled: Paraquat: The Poison Potion: “Paraquat, when ingested, is extremely toxic. It causes a spectrum of complications, including acute respiratory distress syndrome, renal failure, hepatotoxicity, and pulmonary fibrosis. The clinical course in paraquat poisoning is often protracted and there is no known antidote for this toxin.” Interestingly, this article is dedicated to various clinical treatment strategies that can be attempted when exposed to the highly toxic chemical. In short, whatever you do, don’t ingest it, don’t inhale it, stay away from it.

A significant study was completed well in advance of the recent EPA reapproval “Go for it!” which discusses much safer alternatives than paraquat poisoning, to wit: “A new study, led by Pesticide Action Network UK (PAN UK) and supported by the Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention, has shown that a highly hazardous pesticide can be banned without affecting agricultural productivity… Paraquat is highly toxic and fatal to humans when ingested. There is no effective treatment for paraquat poisoning. Banning paraquat is the most effective way to prevent exposure and deaths. More than sixty-seven countries have already banned its use; however, it is still widely used in many low and middle income countries.” (Source: Deadly Pesticide Can be Replaced by Safer Alternatives, New Study Shows, Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention, The University of Edinburgh, January 12, 2023)

“We already know that paraquat is a highly dangerous pesticide, responsible for many tens of thousands of deaths each year due to intentional and unintentional poisoning. There is no antidote for paraquat poisoning. Banning paraquat is the most effective way to prevent exposure and deaths… Pesticide bans may raise concerns from farmers, who worry that their crops will be adversely affected. This study clearly shows that there are many safer alternatives to paraquat that don’t affect agricultural productivity,” Ibid.

Regardless, America is gung-ho toxic paraquat weed killer in the face of incredible evidence against its use: “There is an incredibly overwhelming body of evidence on this that has been accepted by scientists across the globe, and the EPA’s decision really placed it at odds with the best available science,” according to Jonathan Kalmuss-Katz, a senior attorney with Earthjustice, the suit’s lead plaintiff against the EPA. (Source: EPA Again OKs Use of Toxic Herbicide Linked to Parkinson’s Disease, The Guardian, February 11, 2024)

The Earthjustice suit against the EPA represents Petitioners: California Rural Legal Assistance Foundation, Farmworker Association of Florida, The Michael J. Fox Foundation for Parkinson’s Research, Farmworker Justice, Alianza Nacional De Campesinas, Pesticide Action Network North America, Center for Biological Diversity, and Toxic Free North Carolina.

“The science is clear that this highly lethal pesticide threatens all living things, including our country’s wildlife,” according to Nathan Donley, environmental health science director at the Center for Biological Diversity: “The EPA should follow the lead of nearly every other major agricultural country in the world and ban this dangerous stuff for good.” (Source: Controversial Herbicide Tied to Parkinson’s Gets Green Light from EPA for Continued Use, The San Francisco Chronicle, January 31, 2024)

America seemingly has a special bond and unique love affair with paraquat. Usage in America tripled over the past decade. Accordingly, 8,000,000 pounds of it is sprayed on grapes, almonds, soya beans, cotton, corn, wheat, garlic, strawberries, rice, potatoes, artichokes, and pears especially prevalent in California, Iowa, and the Mississippi River Valley. (US Geological Survey source)

“Chronic exposure, even at low doses, can cause Parkinson’s disease… banned in the European Union (EU) since 2007, as well as Switzerland since 1998, on the grounds that it is too dangerous for European farmers even when wearing protective equipment.” (Source: Banned in Europe: How the EU Exports Pesticides Too Dangerous for Use in Europe, Public Eye, September 10, 2020)

Even though the EPA publicly acknowledges high risks of toxicity of paraquat, it nevertheless has determined that human risks are far outweighed by the beneficial use of paraquat to kill weeds. Ergo, in a mindboggling exercise of reverse-humanism, weed killers take priority over human life.

Searching for answers as to how and why toxic chemicals remain in America (and there are thousands) the answer is agrochemical companies use undue influence on federal regulators.

“Interviews with more than two dozen experts on pesticide regulation — including 14 who worked at the EPA’s Office of Pesticide Programs, or OPP — described a federal environmental agency that is often unable to stand up to the intense pressures from powerful agrochemical companies, which spend tens of millions of dollars on lobbying each year and employ many former EPA scientists once they leave the agency.” (Source: The Department of Yes, How Pesticide Companies Corrupted the EPA and Poisoned America, The Intercept, June 30, 2021).

“The enormous corporate influence has weakened and, in some cases, shut down the meaningful regulation of pesticides in the U.S. and left the country’s residents exposed to levels of dangerous chemicals not tolerated in many other nations,” Ibid.

Scientists who identify toxic hazards face enormous pressure from within the Agency to overlook the risks they find. One toxicologist who worked for the Agency’s pesticide department told The Intercept: “It is an unwritten rule that to get promotions, all pesticides need to pass.”

Additional pressure to approve questionable toxic chemicals comes from weak-kneed, easily bought, ignorant, stupid, greedy members of Congress who push what’s referred to as “Yes Packages,” forcing the Agency to approve quickly even with incomplete information about product safety.

America’s elected officials receipt of contributions from Syngenta Corp PAC for federal candidates for 2023-24: $26,000 to Democrats, $136,500 to Republicans. (Source: Syngenta Corp PAC Contributions to Federal Candidates, opensecrets.org) This analysis does not include “dark money,” when both the donor and lagniappe are not identified.

According to Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn): “The pesticide industry has brazenly exploited loopholes in federal law for years and strong safeguards are needed to protect the public and our environment from harmful and sometimes lethal pesticide exposure.” (The Intercept)

Four years ago, in June of 2021 in response to The Intercept article, the EPA responded. EPA spokesperson Kenneth Labbe wrote in an email: ‘The agency is committed to ensuring our pesticide registration decisions are free from interference and that the agency’s scientific integrity policy, which is a bedrock principle for the Biden-Harris Administration, is upheld. EPA is home to world-class scientists. As it has in the past, the agency will continue to ensure their voices and the role of science will guide its decisions going forward.”

Four years later and the referenced “science guidance used by the EPA” is still highly questionable and under legal attack by numerous sources but appears to be stuck swirling in the toilet, going nowhere fast.
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This article was originally published on February 16, 2024 © Counterpunch
Robert Hunziker lives in Los Angeles and can be reached at rlhunziker@gmail.com.

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Arctic Sea Ice Loss – A World of Trouble

Photo by Willian Justen de Vasconcellos is licensed by Unsplash.
Photo by Willian Justen de Vasconcellos is licensed by Unsplash.

Arctic Sea Ice Loss – A World of Trouble

By Robert Hunziker

What if Arctic sea ice melts?

All of it… during the summer!

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), over the past three decades the oldest, thickest ice (13-20 feet thick) has declined by a stunning 95 percent and 70 percent of Arctic sea ice is now thin “seasonal ice” that quickly melts in the Arctic summer.

Based upon scientific analyses, loss of sea ice impacts the planet’s biggest thermostat, i.e., the Arctic sea ice itself, into a wacky climate monster that dims/diminishes one of the biggest reflectors of solar radiation, thereby exposing Earth to excessive solar heat quickly absorbed in dark, iceless sea water that would otherwise be reflected back into space, according to NOAA >80%, by a bright icy surface , bringing in its wake unprecedented climate havoc: (1) Northern Hemispheric ultra-powerful storms (2) disrupted agricultural seasons distort crop growth (3) coastal cities at risk of flooding as the Greenland ice sheet crumbles more and more than ever before; a result of the loss of its biggest refrigerator, right next door.

Based upon several early warning signs, the stakes are enormously high. After all, Arctic sea ice has exerted positive influence, seemingly forever, by maintaining a 10,000-year Holocene Era steady climate system, earmarked by a “not-too-hot-not-too-cold spectacular Goldilocks experience” ever since people first sat around fires in caves thanks, in part, to the ever-vigilant Arctic sea ice thermostat. That gift to humanity is almost gone after 10K years of hard work. Early results of its demise are already forthcoming.

Arctic sea ice loss is arguably one of the most significant tipping points in human history. Can civilization handle it?

A study published in Nature Communications in November 2023 characterized Greenland’s northern glaciers as “in trouble” with its ice shelves rapidly weakening, destabilizing much earlier than previously thought. Loss of Arctic sea ice will accelerate this weakening, by a lot. Meantime, coastal cities of the world are not prepared for major surges.

The direct relationship between the Arctic’s inordinate warming with sea ice loss and disintegrating Greenland ice shelves has been identified for some time now: “Current research suggests that disappearing sea ice and disproportionate Arctic warming contribute to accelerated Greenland melt, which is now the single largest driver of sea-level rise.” (Source: How Are Reduced Arctic Sea ice and Increased Greenland Melting Connected? Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, Vol. 53, Issue 1, 2021)

A proposal to revive, i.e., refreeze Arctic Sea ice, comes from a steadfast group of scientists/engineers/inventors working under the acronym PRAG. They believe they can provide the proper guidance to rescue the Arctic and welcome any support both financially and intellectually because – beware, beware – geo-engineering is a hot topic that sparks vicious dogfighting within the scientific community.

What does refreezing the Arctic entail?

A white paper authored by John Nissen founder of Planetary Restoration Action Group (“PRAG”) claims two main methods (there are others under consideration, e.g. MEER) are needed to cool the Arctic and both should be employed in conjunction: (1) marine cloud brightening – according to cloud physicist John Latham, adding salt particles from sea water to clouds increases the reflectively of sunlight thereby increasing cooling for Arctic sea ice formation; and (2) stratospheric aerosol injection – aerosol particles, a coolant called sulfur dioxide (SO2) sprayed into the atmosphere to reflect sunlight back into space, mimicking the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991-92 which emitted enough SO2 into the stratosphere to cause ~0.5C global cooling.

Interestingly, injecting SO2 to help cool the planet was suggested by the US National Academy of Sciences way back in 1992.

The arguments for and against solar radiation management (SRM) in the simplest of terms revolve around the perceived risks of harm. On the opposition side, there is fear that SRM could inadvertently create a Frankenstein climate system that could do bad things such as (1) extraordinary droughts or (2) disrupt monsoons or (3) damage the precious ozone layer. There is also the fear that SRM would encourage more fossil fuel emissions, known as the moral hazard argument.

The other side in favor of SRM geo-engineering counters by claiming there is no known evidence of significant risk of harm from deliberate geo-engineering to cool the planet, whilst also acknowledging there is no such thing as riskless interference with the climate system. After all, we’ve already geoengineered a Frankenstein climate system by emitting greenhouse gases like CO2 into the atmosphere via cars, trains, planes, and industry for over 100 years. So, it’s fair to ask what’s wrong with geo-engineering to reduce temperatures and defuse the climate crisis? Time is short, according to UN Secretary General António Guterres: “We are entering an era of global boiling.”

PRAG has no knowledge of concrete evidence that Stratospheric Aerosol Injection causes harm whereas they claim there are big potential benefits, such as restoring Arctic sea ice. Regarding the moral hazard argument: PRAG claims “the moral hazard is ‘not to geoengineer’ when geoengineering could prevent catastrophe.” Thus, they’ve staked their position, insinuating that society has few, if any, reasonable alternatives.

For millions of years, Arctic Sea ice has been one of the most important natural regulators of the Northern Hemisphere climate system. Of utmost importance, less sea ice means more sun radiation absorbed into the dark background of sea water, which means more solar heat absorbed in the sea, melting more ice, etc. in a vicious cycle. The result could be Hot House Earth, especially if melting permafrost releases vast quantities of entrapped frozen methane clathrates (aka: methane hydrates) in shallow continental-shelf waters offshore Russia, to wit: the Barents Sea, Kara Sea, Laptev Sea, and East Siberian Sea.

As it happens, the entire Northern Hemisphere is a target of what happens in the Arctic. For example, rapid warming has altered the behavior of the all-important polar jet stream, a high-level stream of air which encircles the planet in a wavy, east-moving pattern. This alteration has led to the jet stream drooping and getting stuck in big holding patterns, causing extremes of weather, like endless blistering heatwaves or atmospheric rivers that stay put.

Indeed, extremes of heat have already become a serious problem, e.g., according to the UN Convention to Combat Desertification, as of August 2023, seventy-five percent (75%) of Spain has been declared vulnerable to desertification because of excessive heat. That UN declaration was in 2023. On January 25, 2024 Gavarda, Spain temperature was 30.7°C (87.3°F) … in the middle of winter. As of early February 2024, Pyrenees ski resorts have closed because of snow drought.

Wake up calls of a climate in trouble are found everywhere. It’s getting serious.

Crazed, erratic polar jet streams, as a result of loss of Arctic sea ice, causes the jet stream to dip south, bringing bitter cold and powerful blizzards to America. This has always been a winter-time climate feature, but it’s gotten worse, and much worse; if the Arctic turns ice free, today’s blizzards will likely turn into something much more powerfully damaging.

PRAG has a recommended agenda to tackle the job of reconstituting Arctic sea ice. PRAG founder John Nissen has been investigating geo-engineering for over a decade, which he believes is urgently needed to save/restore Arctic sea ice. He has theorized the Gulf Stream and Arctic sea ice serve as a thermostatic control system for preventing the planet from heating above a certain temperature, approximately the global temperature of some years ago. As such, Arctic sea ice is an essential part of that control system. Global warming threatens to destroy it at a given summer’s end, possibly by 2030. Thereby, disabling the thermostatic control of the planet. This could bring on the biggest-ever disruptive climate system, to wit: (1) methane discharge from permafrost, igniting rapid global warming, as well as (2) disintegration of portions of the Greenland ice sheet, potentially flooding portions of cities like Miami Beach.

Time is of essence. James Hansen, Earth Institute/Columbia University predicts global temperatures could reach 4C this century without cooling intervention. According to Hansen, the world’s foremost climate scientist, who supports geo-engineering, something must be done soon. He believes we’ll surpass 1.5C next decade and 2C by mid-century. These are global temperature markers above pre-industrial levels that will manifest degradation of ecosystems like the Arctic far ahead of what mainstream science expects.

Earth’s energy imbalance or “sunlight in” versus “sunlight out” is currently running at a frightful rate @ 1.36 W/m2 as of the current 2020s decade. This is troubling (which is the understatement of the year). The current rate of solar radiation is double the 2005-2015 rate @ 0.71 W/m2 (Source: James Hansen). Doubling solar radiation “watts per square meter” over only a decade is a surefire way to heat up the planet much faster than ever before. This one data point is extremely significant and portends bigger trouble down the line.

The Planetary Restoration Action Group welcomes help from interested parties that want to get involved in restoring the Arctic. In their view, the alternative, or doing nothing, is not an option. Meantime, the Arctic is heating up ever faster as global warming spikes upwards, as cautioned by James Hansen. Accordingly, something must be done at the highest priority of international action to halt the Arctic warming and start refreezing the Arctic. The future for every young person is at stake.

According to PRAG, there’s no reason to be downtrodden or defeated if cooling intervention, together with efforts to reduce the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, are activated to restore the planet to a safe, sustainable, biodiverse, and productive state, leading to a bright prospect for future generations. PRAG has a hopeful message.

But time is of essence like never before. According to NOAA, because of global warming, the Arctic’s infrastructure has radically changed for the first time in human history, losing its multi-year thick ice infrastructure. And according to NASA, 70 percent of Arctic sea ice is now “seasonal ice,” that quickly melts in the Arctic summer. Considering the massive area encompassed by the 70 percent, the remaining 30 percent is starting to resemble someone hanging onto a windowsill by fingertips.

Alas, NASA claims Arctic sea ice rarely, if ever, melted in the not-too-distant past.

To contact the Planetary Restoration Action Group:

John Nissen: johnnissen2003@gmail.com
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This article was originally published on February 9, 2024 © Counterpunch
Robert Hunziker lives in Los Angeles and can be reached at rlhunziker@gmail.com.

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Neanderthal Virus Exposure in the 21st Century

Image Courtesy of CDC
Image courtesy of CDC

Neanderthal Virus Exposure in the 21st Century

By Robert Hunziker

Across the entire breadth of the Northern Hemisphere Arctic permafrost is rapidly melting. Nobody knows what strange pathogen is going to pop out from within tons upon tons of permafrost muck. More significantly, imagine the public anxiety if scientists detect viruses older than the human species Homo sapiens, which emerged 300,000 years ago. But Neanderthals (Homo neanderthalensis) fossil remains have been discovered dating back 430,000 years. So then, what if viruses beyond the advent of Homo sapiens, such as Neanderthal viruses, suddenly spread across the planet?

There is some evidence that because of Neanderthal liaisons with Homo sapiens some amount of “passing of genetic code for coping with some pathogens” occurred. Neanderthal genes do show up in 2-3% of Homo sapiens genetic makeup. But don’t assume that means immunity from ancient viruses. Nobody knows what lurks within generation upon generation of permafrost.

A recent headline in The Guardian d/d Jan. 21st, 2024 highlights the story: “Arctic Zombie Viruses in Siberia Could Spark Terrifying New Pandemic, Scientists Warn.”

There’s a distinct possibility that zombie viruses could emerge from the depths at any time thanks to global warming’s impact on the Arctic, which is warming 2-4 times faster than the overall planet. The US portion of Arctic permafrost covers 85% of Alaska; it stays frozen year-round and has been around for at least 500,000 years, reaching depths of 1,000 feet.

Throughout the Arctic the deepest permafrost is 4,900 feet, and according to Nature Journal, Arctic permafrost stores nearly 1,700 billion metric tons of frozen carbon. For comparison purposes, according to Statista, current annual global emissions of carbon dioxide CO2 are 37.15 billion metric tons. So, permafrost is holding the equivalent of 46 years of current CO2 emissions.

Scientists likely lay awake at night, staring at the ceiling, wondering: How much carbon emissions will permafrost add to agriculture, industry, and transportation emissions, resulting in a whacked climate system that’s terrorizing society.

For the first time in hundreds of thousands of years, commensurate with the onset of the 21st century, and due to the overwhelming force of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, permafrost is suddenly drooping/melting very fast. As a result, modern-day society is on a collision course with thousands of years of muck, giga-tons of greenhouse gases such as CO2 and CH4, and reams of ancient viruses and bacteria. It’s a vast, dark mysterious ancient world in an icy vault that’s unfolding right before our eyes.

The oldest permafrost researched by scientists goes to a depth of 50 meters (165 feet), and it’s 650,000 years old, discovered and analyzed by a German, Russian, and English team of researchers, led by Julian Murton, University of Sussex found near the village of Batagay in eastern Siberia. (Source: Scientists Find the Oldest Permafrost Yet Discovered in Siberia, Arctic Business Journal, June 22, 2021)

The dearth of research on permafrost brings some level of nail-biting into play, known as “The Research Gap” or (1) a lack of understanding of potential harmful microbes in the permafrost (2) which microbes might survive, or not, freeze-thaw cycles (3) if plants and humans will be infected by ancient microbes. It’s important to know that nobody knows the answers to this vast mystery. Humanity is literally a sitting duck for whatever pops out of the muck.

Could a pathogen from thousands of years ago wipe out or inflict damage to modern-day society or to a particular region? The risks to humans of ancient viruses are much higher than the risks of “known pathogens.” Modern humans likely have no natural immunity to fight off prehistoric viral infections. Society could be blindsided without preparation.

Therefore, scientists are working to establish an Arctic monitoring network for early detection of ancient zombie viruses. Alas, this is but one more unfortunate fallout from excessive anthropogenic global warming. The Arctic warming 2-4 times faster than the world is exposing an unexplored underworld of ancient viruses. Nobody is prepared. Melting permafrost is under-researched: it’s massive; it’s happening now; it could be humankind’s biggest challenge, and nobody knows what to expect next.

However, the proposed Arctic monitoring network hopes to pinpoint early cases of disease threats, including facilities for quarantine and medical treatment of infected people. For example, what if an ancient zombie strain of polio, which is very contagious, raises its ugly head? Already, studies by the French National Centre for Scientific Research has discovered 13 frozen viruses in permafrost, including the Pandoravirus, which is 48,000 years old. (Source: Scientists Have Revived a ‘Zombie’ Virus That Spent 48,500 Years Frozen in Permafrost, CNN World, March 8, 2023)

The symptoms of Pandoravirus: (1) hair loss (2) flaky skin (3) bulging eyes (4) twitching (5) skin discoloration. An infected person is easily recognizable as a victim. But will it kill, maybe yes, maybe no, probably no.

According to the renown French virologist Jean-Michel Claverie: “A viral infection from an unknown, ancient pathogen in humans, animals or plants could have potentially ‘disastrous’ effects.” His research is published in a 2022 study (Source: Zombie Viruses Are Waking Up After 50,000 Years as Planet Warms, Bloomberg News, October 9, 2023).

Eventually, melting Arctic permafrost could become the world’s biggest headache, not only as a death threat but as a double threat. The threat is much more than zombie viruses. It’s also industrial contaminates that have accumulated in permafrost regions that have been neglected in existing climate impact studies. According to a very recent major study: “We identify about 4500 industrial sites where potentially hazardous substances are actively handled or stored in the permafrost-dominated regions of the Arctic. Furthermore, we estimate that between 13,000 and 20,000 contaminated sites are related to these industrial sites.” (Source: Thawing Permafrost Poses Environmental Threat to Thousands of Sites with Legacy Industrial Contamination, National Library of Medicine, March 28, 2023)

Additionally, as described in an article entitled, Alaska’s Scary Orange Rivers, Dec. 29, 2023: Alaska’s wilderness rivers are turning orange as thawing permafrost exposes toxic substances. Boots-on-the-ground research of the rivers found (1) very low levels of dissolved oxygen (2) pH factors up to 100 times more acidic than normal (3) electrical conductivity comparable to industrial wastewater. Hard to believe it’s the wilderness!

Additionally, the team of scientists in Alaska’s Kobuk Valley National Park discovered blackened, dark patches in the soil like fresh asphalt found throughout the normally pristine Brook’s Range. Water flowing via small drainage streams out of the blackened patches had pH factors so low it was like vinegar.

What then is the sensibility of a society that allows its planet to be poisoned? And for how long will life-supporting ecosystems, gradually being poisoned, remain viable? There is something horribly amiss when wilderness parks turn toxic, but who really cares is even more puzzling yet.

Consider the scenario and the repercussions as 25% of the exposed land surface of the Northern Hemisphere is covered by permafrost that’s rapidly melting. It is loaded with toxic industrial substances and thousands of years of accumulated viruses and bacteria.

Very significantly, the group of scientists conducted the “first ever comprehensive sampling of an entire watershed” on a six-day mission in an area of Alaska famously known as “the final frontier.” Here’s what they observed: Traversing the river, they found murky water over orange rocks where only a couple of years ago it was clear and full of fish, not now. At some spots the water ran half orange and half green and at others further downstream the river had the color and opacity of pea soup. Forrest McCarthy, a former US Antarctic Program coordinator, said: “Most climate change is subtle. This is like, bam!” The team could not find any fish or insects in some areas of the vast Range, saying: “Biodiversity just crashed.”

That happened in the wild where salmon are supposed to be running in streams as bears swat away mosquitos and gnats. But not what the scientists found. Science is only starting to get a handle on what’s happening up north. The scientists came away shocked and dismayed beyond belief. What else is happening throughout 25% of the Northern Hemisphere is anybody’s guess.

Meanwhile, the US, Russia, China and others have big plans now that Arctic sea ice is a shadow of its former self. They want the oil; they want the minerals; they want the metals; they want the easier trade routes; they want it all. They have big plans, but apparently nobody has big plans for how to resolve 20,000 industrial contamination sites in the Arctic. It’s an open sore. (Source: Moritz Langer, et al, Thawing Permafrost Poses Environmental Threat to Thousands of Sites with Legacy Industrial Contamination, Nature Communications, March 28, 2023)

In the context of capitalistic growth to infinity, ecosystems throughout the Arctic are up for grabs. The US wants in, as do both Russia and China. They covet and practice gangster capitalism, a few bosses own pretty much everything. Will they be able to successfully navigate the challenges of toxic-laden ecosystems and zombie viruses, or will their new-found treasure trove of commodities take so much overriding precedence that zombie viruses and toxic-laden ecosystems are easily pushed aside? Until it’s too late. The End.
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This article was originally published on January 26, 2024 © Counterpunch
Robert Hunziker lives in Los Angeles and can be reached at rlhunziker@gmail.com.

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Too Much Heat, Past and Present

Image by Pawel Czerwinsk
Photo by Pawel Czerwinski is licensed by Unsplash.

Too Much Heat, Past and Present

By Robert Hunziker

The ultimate consequences of global warming are difficult to truly understand by the public, policymakers and by pretty much everybody. In their hearts, they do not want to believe it’ll cause an extinction event. That’s simply too hard to believe, going too far. People cannot wrap their minds around the idea that civilization, poof, is gone. After all, extinctions are not features of human civilization. Or are they?

Archeologists tell us otherwise. Climate change and natural disasters have led advanced civilizations into utter ruin, extinction events. The Mayan Civilization, population 7-10 million, skilled as advanced astronomers that built elaborate cities without the use of modern-day machinery around 1500 BC went extinct. Archeologists believe the causes were: (1) environmental degradation (2) deforestation (3) soil erosion and (4) climate change altered rain patterns to bring devastating drought and famine.

And one of the greatest civilizations of all time, the Indus Valley Civilization (2500-to-1700 BC) more than five million people with some of the world’s best architecture and amazing technology, cities of 50,000 with roads and advanced sewage systems, homes with private bathrooms, 3,500 years ago went extinct. Researchers studied isotopic concentrations of stalagmites, and other archeological evidence, analyzing 5,700 years of rainfall patterns for the region, discovering evidence of severe drought at the time the civilization ended.

A fascinating historical study of collapsed civilizations was published by the BBC: Are We on the Road to Civilization Collapse: February 18, 2019. Excerpts to follow:

The great historian Arnold Toynbee (1889-1975, London School of Economics and King’s College London) in his 12-volume magnum opus A Study of History analyzed the rise and fall of 28 different civilizations. He concluded: “Great civilizations are not murdered. Instead, they take their own lives.”

Our deep past is marked by recurring failure: “Collapse can be defined as a rapid and enduring loss of population, identity, and socio-economic complexity. Public services crumble and disorder ensues as government loses control of its monopoly on violence. Virtually all past civilizations have faced this fate.”

“Collapse may be a normal phenomenon for civilizations, regardless of their size and technological stage. We may be more technologically advanced now. But this gives little ground to believe that we are immune to the threats that undid our ancestors. Our newfound technological abilities even bring new, unprecedented challenges to the mix. And while our scale may now be global, collapse appears to happen to both sprawling empires (the Roman Empire for example) and fledgling kingdoms alike. There is no reason to believe that greater size is armour against societal dissolution. Our tightly coupled, globalized economic system is, if anything, more likely to make crisis spread.”

Archeologists claim the following categories mostly influence collapse: (1) climatic change (2) environmental degradation (3) inequality and oligarchy (4) complexity, meaning how society functions, e.g., too heavy of a bureaucracy (5) external shocks like famine and plagues. Hmm.

As of today, whether an extinction event is in the cards or not, and science has clearly shown us that extinctions do happen with well-developed civilizations, the most pressing concern is rapidly rising fossil fuel emissions and global temperature that disrupts, dislodges, and upends life. Alas, many signals indicate it’ll get worse.

James Hansen Earth Institute/Columbia University predicts much higher global temperatures much sooner than the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is the UN body politic of climate change.

For decades now, Hansen’s prescience has effectively been global warming’s equivalence of Yoda-speak. As the lead NASA scientist in 1988, Hansen testified to the US Senate that the greenhouse effect had been detected, indicating that the climate was changing. Human activity, specifically burning fossil fuels, was changing the chemistry of the atmosphere and not for the better.

Thirty-five years later, November 2023, Hansen has issued yet another warning but with much greater gravity and resonance than his 1988 warning. His landmark 1988 speech about changing the atmosphere’s chemistry has now become reality: it’s immediately before us. That warning has turned real through imagery, in real time, of massive wildfires, massive atmospheric rivers, massive droughts, extraordinarily floods, as unprecedented climate events regularly appear on nightly TV news programs.

Now Hansen is warning that scientists are underestimating how fast the planet is warming. In fact, he’s concerned enough that he believes the impending crisis necessitates geoengineering the planet’s atmosphere. For many scientists this is not acceptable, unproven, and unnecessary.

A recent Time magazine article We Need Geoengineering to Stop Out of Control Warming Warns Climate Scientist James Hansen, Time, Nov. 2, 2023, claims few scientists share his belief that geoengineering will be necessary. Researchers challenge its efficacy and safety profile, expecting deleterious unintended consequences.

But, as Hansen readily states, we’ve been inadvertently geoengineering the atmosphere for as long as we’ve spewed greenhouse gases, like CO2. As a society, we’re effective at changing the atmosphere’s chemistry, even though it’s not intentional. Therefore, why not re-geoengineer in the opposite direction?

Seriously, cars, trains, planes, and industry have been geoengineering the atmosphere with CO2 for over 100 years.

According to Hansen, something must be done soon. He believes we’ll surpass 1.5C next decade and 2C by midcentury. These are global temperature markers above pre-industrial levels that manifest big challenging issues, and far ahead of what mainstream science expects.

For example, warming in-excess of 2C could unleash collapse of West Antarctica ice sheets, which are already compromised. The Antarctic continent is a standout feature of the planet containing 95% of the planet’s fresh water trapped in ice melted equal to 200 feet higher sea levels. Nothing more needs to be said about that.

In fact, forget the 200 feet, which would take centuries, just the first several feet will turn the world upside down, flooding the world’s major coastal cities. High tide will become high water flood levels in the streets of America’s coastal cities. Some of this is already starting to happen, e.g., Portland’s high tide broke all-time records, reaching 14 feet at the same time as record-breaking floods hit the US East Coast, January 14th, 2024. NOAA expects sea levels along US coasts to rise as much over the next 10 years as they did over past 100 years.

Recent flooding events are setting new all-time records. These are not run of the mill normal flooding events, not normal at all. An extreme example of the climate system’s new rambunctiousness is Pakistan’s 2022 massive flood covering one-third of the country with water, 33 million people impacted, 8 million displaced, 2 million homes destroyed, 1,700 killed, 12,867 injured, and a year later 1.5 million still displaced.

What would be the aftermath if 2 million US homes were destroyed by flooding?

In a recent webinar, Hansen cautioned: “The 2°C warming limit is dead, unless we take purposeful actions to alter the earth’s energy imbalance.” It’s a strong statement that few, if any, climate scientists have the guts to make.

However, breathing the word “geoengineering” raises the hackles of many climate scientists. Michael Mann of Pennsylvania State University calls Hansen’s arguments for the necessity of solar geoengineering “a misguided policy advocacy.” (Time, Nov. 2) According to Mann, the climate situation is extremely dire. But it can be handled by concerted efforts to decarbonize our economy, without resorting to geoengineering.

Whereas Hansen claims: “Emissions cuts alone will not be enough to ensure a safe climate in future years, according to Hansen and his collaborators. governments will have to impose carbon fees to help rapidly draw down emissions, they argue, adding it will also be necessary to research and deploy techniques to reduce incoming solar radiation, also known as solar geoengineering.” (Time, Nov.2)

Looking ahead, how should society approach a very spooky climate system that blindsides humanity with surprise after surprise, for example, according to The Weather Network: “Atmospheric rivers are becoming so intense that we need to rank them like hurricanes.” That’s a first as atmospheric rivers are a normal feature of the climate system but like all normal features these days, human activity, goosing up global warming, has intensified normal features by a factor of 10-to-100 times. Multiply 10 times anything… it’s a lot, or how about 100 times?

There’s paleoclimate evidence that today’s rate of CO2 emissions at over 2.0 ppm/year with resultant global warming “matching the results” of 1,000 years at 0.02 ppm/year occurring millions of years ago when only nature was involved. 2.0 ppm is 100 times faster than 0.02 ppm. That’s 100 times faster than nature, which is the crux of the global warming problem.

Nowadays, massive atmospheric rivers are competing with melting glaciers with flooding that can spur serious damage that major insurance companies never anticipated, as rates go up and up with some insurance coverage dropped in select states. And it’ll get worse unless and until human activity works to mitigate the interrelationship between fossil fuel emissions and global warming. James Hansen is saying we must enhance the planet’s albedo to reflect solar radiation back to outer space. There are ways to do this, maybe successful, maybe not.

According to Hansen, Earth’s energy imbalance is completely out of whack with more energy than ever before coming into the planet as absorbed sunlight rather than going out as heat radiated to outer space. This imbalance has doubled within only one decade, according to a study by NASA and the US National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration doubling over only 14 years is downright alarming: “A positive energy imbalance – which is what we have – means the earth system is gaining energy, causing the planet to heat up.” This is no small problem; it’s big; it’s new; it threatens life-supporting ecosystems.

Going forward, a very big question is whether a world consensus will be reached about whether, or not, geoengineering will be officially endorsed. Meanwhile, several tenuous ecosystems, e.g., Greenland’s northern-most glaciers recently discovered as “surprisingly tipsy,” implies an outlook of hesitatingly “keeping one’s fingers crossed.” According to climate scientists, there are multitudes of ecosystems bordering on dangerous tipping points.

Yet, fortunately for all concerned, at least the planet is good at snapping back from adversity, surviving five extinction events, but what of human civilization in the face of similar adversity? According to Toynbee, the track record is lousy.
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This article was originally published on January 19, 2024 © Counterpunch
Robert Hunziker lives in Los Angeles and can be reached at rlhunziker@gmail.com.

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The State of Capitalism’s Climate System

Photo by fikry anshor on Unsplash
Photo by fikry anshor on Unsplash

The State of Capitalism’s Climate System

By Robert Hunziker

Three years ago, 15,000 scientists declared a climate emergency by signing onto a State of the Climate Report. That signing led to annual updates, for example, the most recent version: The 2023 State of the Climate Report: Entering Uncharted Territory, Bioscience, vol. 73, issue 12, December 2023, Oxford Academic (aka: “The Report”).

The initial paragraph of The Report suggests a planetary juggernaut of cascading ecosystems altering life systems: “Life on planet Earth is under siege. We are now in uncharted territory… a situation no one has ever witnessed firsthand in the history of humanity.” Therefore, it’s fair to say nobody really knows how this uncharted territory will play out.

The Report is a compendium of all-time climate record events depicting big-time trouble, going in the wrong direction versus maintaining a healthy planet. In and of itself, the analysis in The Report, researched and authored by top notch scientists, should be enough for world policymakers to insist upon going back to COP28 in Dubai/2023, redoing the two-week UN climate conference and adopting effective solutions to replace the mealy-mouthed inadequate proposals adopted at COP28. The world deserves better.

Thirty years of UN climate conferences failing to move the needle to help Earth’s ecosystems thrive and survive, and not collapse, has unintentionally cast a dark shadow over scientists’ climate warnings within the context of a commanding capitalistic socio-economic system based upon infinite growth at center stage, humming along like “no worries” economic growth always bails us out, but what’s left behind?

The Report makes the case that under the surface, and not clearly visible to society, a monstrosity of ecosystem turmoil threatens the entire foundation of capitalistic growth. The Report’s warnings are real, not fictional, not misleading but real warnings of a premature collapsing Earth system that’s the foundation for everything. This challenging situation has progressively gotten worse by the year, but it’s now starting to burst at the seams. The year 2023 exposed an off the charts dangerous climate system broadcasts on nightly news programs reporting massive wildfires, massive flooding, massive droughts, massive atmospheric rivers, massive everything, never witnessed previously. Scientists believe it’ll get worse.

According to the scientists: “We are afraid of the uncharted territory that we have now entered. Conditions are going to get very distressing and potentially unmanageable for large regions of the world… We warn of potential collapse of natural and socioeconomic systems… Massive suffering due to climate change is already here, and we have now exceeded many safe and just Earth system boundaries, imperiling stability and life-support systems.”

The Report states that 20 of 35 vital planetary signs are now at record extremes. This means that nearly 60% of the planet is huffing and puffing to stay on track of life-sourcing support. For example, the chart of Ocean Heat Content shows a nearly vertical upward thrust. This is viewed by scientists as especially troubling because of the knockoff impacts, including loss of sea life, coral reef bleaching, and intensified tropical storms. Hidden from view, the world’s oceans are under severe stress, not to mention extremely abusive overfishing, especially China’s inordinately large distant water fishing fleet of thousands of trawlers (“world’s worst abuser of sea laws” – IUU Fishing Index, US Coast Guard).

With 60% of the planet limping and few, if any, serious signs of governmental policy helping the 20 vital signs in various stages of deterioration, The Report addresses the root cause of trouble by identifying cause and effect, i.e., the ecological footprint of economic activity overwhelms any chances to heal the planet. In short, infinite economic growth and a steady state planet are like oil and water that do not mix.

According to the scientists, “economic growth, as it is conventionally pursued, is unlikely to allow us to achieve our social, climate, and biodiversity goals. The fundamental challenge lies in the difficulty of decoupling economic growth from harmful environmental impacts.”

More to the point, egregious, superfluous, redundant, unneeded wealth creation is at the heart of the problem. As it happens, sixty percent (60%) of planetary ecosystems hobbling along on crutches is the result of 10% of the world population enjoying a great ride at the top of a great economic bubble expanding year by year, as this minority of people lead the best possible lifestyle in classic double or triple or quadruple, or maybe even as much as 100 to 1,000 times overshoot. The 10% global footprint tramples the lowly 90%.

In a faux complexity of hopefulness, many GDP models assume that growth can be decoupled from emissions and from consumption-oriented environmental impacts and all will be hunky-dory, e.g., carbon capture will bail us out of the global warming imbroglio. However, The Report makes special mention of such assumptions as not realistic: “Negative emissions technologies are in an early stage of development, posing uncertainties regarding their effectiveness, scalability, and environmental and societal impacts. As such, we should not rely on unproven carbon removal techniques.”

In the final analysis, the hard truth is fossil fuel emissions must be halted at the source as soon as possible or future state of the planet reports will show surrealistic evidence of a sickly planet. At some point in time this image of a sickly planet will become unbearable, and the masses will turn extremely restless, similar to unwelcomed disruptions, as well as threats of disruptions, already becoming evident throughout the globe. Under the circumstances, this type of behavior is not at all surprising. After all, it’s only too obvious that nearly two-thirds of the planet’s vital signs are flashing code red, not code yellow. It’s too late for caution when immediate action is required.

According to the scientific evidence, the underlying message is clear: Do something different. The current trajectory is not working. What could policymakers of the world do differently to put the planet back to a steady state so that it doesn’t flame out near term? Climate change, like a wild roller coaster ride, is full of surprising turns and sudden rapid descent.

The Report contains ideas to hopefully shake off what looks like an inevitability of more and more failing ecosystems: “The fundamental challenge lies in the difficulty of decoupling economic growth from harmful environmental impacts. Although technological advancements and efficiency improvements can contribute to some degree of decoupling, they often fall short in mitigating the overall ecological footprint of economic activities. The impacts vary greatly by wealth; in 2019, the top 10% of emitters were responsible for 48% of global emissions, whereas the bottom 50% were responsible for just 12%. We therefore need to change our economy to a system that supports meeting basic needs for all people instead of excessive consumption by the wealthy.”

Frankly, that sounds like some version of socialism, but in America socialism is equated to Mephistopheles. But what if that’s not really true? What if socialism benefits everybody, except for the one percent?

Broadly speaking, The Report recommends: “Efforts must be directed toward eliminating emissions from fossil fuels and land-use change and increasing carbon sequestration with nature-based climate solutions.” All of which is doable., but honestly, that’s an often-repeated prescription that never seems to stick, never gains traction. If otherwise, if it gained traction, over time The State of the Climate Reports would fade into the sunset without anything to write about.

Nevertheless, the ecological overshoot of human demands on natural resources, or overexploitation, is seemingly an insurmountable issue that points a finger at endless growth and its sidekick overconsumption by rich countries and wealthy individuals. And since socialism is out of the running to fix ecological overshoot, one way forward is a circular economy. Instead of a throw-away economic system, learn to recirculate across the board, like British economist Kate Raworth’s Doughnut Economics designed to avoid ecological overshoot.

In the final analysis, The Report is more relevant now than ever before simply because nearly 2/3rds of the planet’s vital signs are screaming for help, but none is forthcoming. Therefore, and unfortunately, The Report is destined to grow and grow as ecosystems fail one by one, until one day Eureka! The State of the Climate Report will become sought after and studied and discussed by policymakers standing knee-deep in water.

Realistically, the issues described within this article about the state of the climate system do not get as much attention as warranted by policymakers or by the public. Assuming this article is read, the gist of it, alas, may be tossed aside as easily and quickly as our disposable-oriented society tosses aside paper wrappers, plastic containers, and pretty much everything, including nuclear waste, but where to?

Meanwhile, of special interest, the co-founder of Extinction Rebellion (XR) Roger Hallam has decided to accept the inevitability of collapsing ecosystems. He is turning his focus away from climate demonstrations and disruptions of society, gluing people to buildings, roadways, and airplanes to the discovery of a new type of civilization. He’ll be conducting a worldwide zoom session January 14th at 8:00 AM Pacific Coast time. It’ll be a rare opportunity to learn about and/or join a new world order that’s not sinister. To register for the zoom meeting: Here’s the link.
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This article was originally published on January 12, 2024 © Counterpunch
Robert Hunziker lives in Los Angeles and can be reached at rlhunziker@gmail.com.

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Antarctica Under Siege and XR Takes a Radical Turn

Photo by Derek Oyen on Unsplash
Photo by Derek Oyen on Unsplash

Antarctica Under Siege and XR Takes a Radical Turn

By Robert Hunziker

Antarctica has finally succumbed to rapid climate change. This past year (2023) brought changes to the icy continent that left climate scientists feeling a “punch in the gut.” (Source: Red Alert in Antarctica: The Year Rapid Dramatic Change Hit Climate Scientists Like a “Punch in the Guts,” The Guardian, December 30, 3023)

Antarctic sea ice cover crashed for six months straight to a level so far below anything else on the satellite record that scientists struggled for adjectives to describe what they were witnessing.

Global warming’s impact on Antarctica is serious, dangerous, threatening, hard to believe, and maybe unstoppable. Warnings like this, but not as serious as this, have been happening for years. As a result, too much negativity has turned the public numb to climate change. It’s been an endless stream of bad news that never gets good, always bad. But, in all honesty, that’s the nature of the beast unless reality is simply ignored.

Mainstream news recognizes the frustration, for example: “Global efforts to reach net-zero carbon emissions are failing in almost every way, with one exception: the boom in electric vehicles.” (Source: EVs Are the Only Bright Spot in Climate Fight, Study Shows, Bloomberg, Nov. 14, 2023)

At the other end of the spectrum, Extinction Rebellion -XR- famous for gluing people to airplanes, roadways, and fossil fuel hdqs doorways, and one of the most famous or infamous (take your pick) internationally organized groups against the root causes of global warming has heard enough bad news. It’s changing strategy by accepting reality.

Co-founder Roger Hallam just took XR off the streets, so to speak, with his 2024 new year email broadcast: “Balance: Building the Next Civilization in 2024,” which is a brilliant practical strategic change of heart. In Roger’s words: “Look, the carbon regime has totally fucked up, so the climate crisis is now locked in. We don’t need to create massive social disruption because it’s going to happen anyway! The regime will collapse under the weight of its own contradictions. So, what next? We need to build the next civilization and stop fascism from taking us to a terminal hell.”

Roger sees the inevitability of what’s already set in motion, including the burgeoning fascist movement, and he sees the rotted failure of UN climate conferences (for over 30 years now) not addressing the root cause of ecosystem destruction. As a result, nothing is going to be done soon enough to make a difference. All the chatter about nuclear power and tripling renewables, blah-blah-blah, at the end of the day, will be greenwashing to appease people who see one “natural disaster” unfold after another on nightly news over the past couple of years, massive floods, massive droughts, massive storms, massive wildfires, and massive atmospheric rivers. Everything is massive these days.

In the real world, none of the proposed solutions for climate change meet the “scale of the problem” after more than 200 years of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. Climate change is climate change is climate change, the same for eons, but the 21st century brand is radically different from anything in the paleoclimate record because it’s 10 times faster, in some instances 100 times faster. than ever before in paleoclimate history. Humans can’t keep up with the biogeological turbocharged monster. Scientists complain it’s happening so much faster than their models.

Ipso facto, ecosystems teeter throughout the planet, e.g., Greenland, in bad shape. Some scientists don’t even want to talk about Greenland any longer once it rained for the first time in recorded history at the Summit, 10,551 feet elevation.

A recent study about Greenland’s past is horrifying: “A recently discovered ice core taken from beneath the ice sheet decades ago has revealed that a large part was ice-free around 400,000 years ago, when temperatures were similar to those what we are now approaching. It’s an alarming finding that has implications for sea level rise. The study overturns previous assumptions that most of Greenland’s ice sheet was frozen for millions of years. Instead, moderate, natural warming led to large-scale melting and sea level rise of more than 1.4 meters (4.6 feet), according to the report in the journal Science.” The lead author of the study, Paul Bierman, University of Vermont: “When you look at what nature did in the past, as geoscientists, that’s our best clue to the future.” (Source: Long Lost Greenland Ice Core Suggest Potential for Disastrous Sea Level Rise, CNN, July 20, 2023)

Interestingly, and nerve-wracking, levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere today are 1.5 times higher than 400,000 years ago when sea levels increased 4.6 feet. Melt events take time but how much time nobody knows.

According to Copernicus ‘Ice Sheets’, since 1980 the rate of ice mass loss tripled for Greenland (pre-1980s, it was stable and in balance) and Antarctica. And now accelerating. Tripling the rate of ice mass loss of the two largest chunks of ice on the planet is impossible to fathom.

According to the science, Antarctica is in big trouble, and it may be irreversible. Coastal cities could be under water; it’s just a matter of time; nobody knows how soon or later, but at the current rate of global fossil fuel emissions, it looks grim. After all, the fossil fuel industry has publicly announced intentions to go full-bore, like there’s no tomorrow, they are cranking up oil production big time, according to statements by big oil companies.  “Global fossil fuel production in 2030 is set to be more than double the level deemed consistent with meeting climate goals set under the 2015 Paris climate agreement.” (Source: Global Fossil Fuel Production Plans Far Exceed Climate Targets, UN Says, Reuters, Nov. 8, 2023)

Massively increasing oil production conforms to a recent James Hansen (Earth Institute-Columbia University) publication about exceeding the world’s most recognizable threshold, aka: the danger zone, the Climate Maginot Line or 2C above pre-industrial. Hansen’s prediction is way ahead of expectations, the upcoming decade, the 2030s. That’s early! It should be noted that scientists claim exceeding 2C wreaks havoc with life-sourcing ecosystems. For example, it’s already happening at above 2C with Arctic permafrost melting 2-4 times the average of global warming. Arctic rivers turn toxic and orange, one of the biggest sore thumbs on the planet, but Antarctica, the Amazon rainforest, Greenland, and the Great Barrier Reef are challenging.

A British Antarctic Survey found the record drop in sea ice led to a catastrophic breeding failure for animals. Meanwhile, East Antarctica recorded its biggest heatwave ever at 39C above normal. And making matters worse, a major study published in Nature found meltwater slowing down, by a nerve-rattling 30%, Southern Ocean Overturning Circulation; this has huge negative implications for global weather, especially for northern Europe, which could lose its warm tropical current flow. And the implications for marine life are a major concern.

Meantime, West Antarctica melting has tripled, and studies show accelerated melting of the ice shelves has locked in a cascading impact for West Antarctica which is in much worse shape than its eastern cousin.

Even worse yet for sea level rise expectations, Antarctica’s enormous loss of sea ice was never expected so early. According to Tony Press, former head of the Australian Antarctic Division: “There’s a chance that it could come back again, but there’s also a very, very high chance that sea ice in Antarctica has moved into a new state… You would not be an alarmist if you said you were really worried about that,” Ibid.

Researchers claim a permanent loss of sea ice would accelerate ocean warming, as dark water absorbs more heat than ice and amplifies the rate of global sea level rise by removing a buffer protecting the continent’s ice shelves.

Antarctica, like so many other ecosystems throughout the globe, such as the Amazon rainforest (20% gone for good, 40% severely degraded) no longer adhere to the flow of Mother Nature. Human activity dictates the flow.

Roger Hallam co-founder of XR has seen the future, and it’s an analog of the past but much worse. Now, he’s searching for answers to building the next civilization. Not a bad idea. But where?

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This article was originally published on January 5, 2024 © Counterpunch
Robert Hunziker lives in Los Angeles and can be reached at rlhunziker@gmail.com.

Note: This article will also be posted on the Facing Future Now! Facebook group. If you would like to comment on this article, please go to the Facebook group and post your comments there under the article posting.

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Alaska’s Scary Orange Rivers

Image courtesy National Park Service is in the public domain.
Image courtesy National Park Service is in the public domain.

Alaska’s Scary Orange Rivers

By Robert Hunziker

Global warming can add one more notch to its gun belt. The rapid onset of global warming is turning Alaska’s wilderness rivers orange. Global warming impacts Arctic temperatures 2-4 times warmer than the global average, and permafrost that’s been around since before humans sat round crackling cave fires is rapidly melting. Eons of frozen stuff is making its first appearance in tens of thousands of years, clobbering wilderness rivers with deadly toxicity.

Researchers believe the cause(s) is/are (1) acid from minerals leaching iron out of bedrock exposed to water for the first time in millennia and/or (2) bacteria mobilizing iron from the permafrost soil in thawing wetlands prompted by global warming.

A group of scientists at Alaska’s Kobuk Valley National Park reported numerous sightings of orange river water 60 miles from the nearest villages and 250 miles from road systems. Patrick Sullivan, an ecologist/University of Alaska, Anchorage, analyzed a screen of a sensor he had dipped into the water: “This is bad stuff.” (Source: Why Are Alaska‘s Rivers Turning Orange? Scientific American, January 1, 2024)

Dissolved oxygen in the orangish water was very low, the pH factor was 6.4 or 100 times more acidic than normal, and the electrical conductivity of the orange water was similar to industrial wastewater. Sullivan, stating the obvious: “Don’t drink this water,” Ibid. Honestly, think about the level of ridiculousness, it’s pristine (normally) drinkable water in the vast wilderness.

The scientists started their investigation of the water near the entry point of one of many streams to Salmon River that runs south from the peaks of Brooks Range, Alaska, known as “the last frontier,” which is a 650-mile line of slopes that separates northern Alaska from the rumbling Arctic coastline. A federal government act designated the Salmon River as a wild and scenic river with “water of exceptional clarity with deep luminescent blue-green pools and large runs of chum and pink salmon.” Sullivan: “It was a famous, pristine river ecosystem, and it feels like it’s completely collapsing now,” Ibid.

Ultimately, the Brooks Range rivers flow into the Arctic and Pacific Oceans.

Similar fate is discoloring rivers and streams throughout the Brooks Range. The researchers believe Russia and Canada are likely experiencing the same. Timothy Lyons, geochemist, University of California/Riverside said: “Almost certainly it is happening in other parts of the Arctic,” Ibid.

The scientists who studied the Range agree the major cause is climate change. For example, Kobuk Valley National Park has warmed by 2.4°C since 2006, and it’s believed the excessive heat has already begun thawing up to 40% of the permafrost. This is a good example of why global climate meetings, like COP28 recently held in Dubai, must come to grips with putting a stop to fossil fuel emissions, the number one agent on behalf of excessively harmful global warming.

The Brooks Range group of scientists conducted the first ever comprehensive sampling of an entire watershed on a six-day mission down the Salmon River. They believe a combination of (1) acid from minerals leaching iron out of bedrock exposed to water for the first time in millennia and/or (2) bacteria mobilizing iron from the permafrost soil in thawing wetlands is/are behind the dirty deeds, which means rusting will gradually “smother streams almost anywhere there’s permafrost,” inclusive of one-fourth of the entire Northern Hemisphere. This is a prime example of how far-reaching excessive global warming destroys the most pristine ecosystems on the planet and speaks to the necessity of halting fossil fuel emissions, yesterday. After all, this is what happens at 2°C above pre-industrial, ecosystems collapse. Only recently, Dr. James Hansen/Columbia University shocked science by saying 2°C will arrive during the 2030s, way-way earlier than IPCC projections.

Traversing the river, they found murky water over orange rocks where only a couple of years ago it was clear and full of fish, not now. At some spots the water ran half orange and half green and at others further downstream the river had the color and opacity of pea soup. Forrest McCarthy, a former US Antarctic Program coordinator, claimed: “Most climate change is subtle. This is like, bam!” Scientists claim they could not find any fish or insects in some areas of the Range, stating: “Biodiversity just crashed,” Ibid.

Meanwhile, 50 miles west of Salmon, the Agashashok River also turned orange-brown. Sullivan and company expressed shock by how fast streams started transforming, e.g., Clear Creek water was so acidic that it curdled the powered milk used for nightly tea, as the scientists traversed the Range.

On a trip to Timber Creek, 20 miles west of Salmon River, one of the members of the team who had fly-fished in the creek a few years ago, discovered: “More iron than fish… I looked at the creek, and I said, ‘this creek is dead. It’s just blanketed with metals,” Ibid. It’s what’s found in a national park, in the wilderness, don’t think about it too much, it’s deadly.

Additionally, the team discovered several blackened, dark ground patches the color of fresh asphalt scattered throughout the Range. At one patch they took a sample of the trickling water flowing out of a dark patch. It had a pH factor of 2.95, like vinegar. The ground burn was caused by acid, and according to the team: “If it’s got that low of a pH… it’s actively burning. There’s at least a dozen burns in this valley,” Ibid.

Brooks Range, Alaska is a preeminent example of how global warming enhanced by, driven by, fossil fuel emissions from cars, trains, and planes and industry impacts the most precious ecosystems of the planet where nobody lives but where life is supposed to thrive. It isn’t thriving any longer. Only an international forum like the UN climate change conferences held yearly, called COP, can come close to fixing this open sore on the planet, maybe?

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This article was originally published on December 29, 2023 © Counterpunch
Robert Hunziker lives in Los Angeles and can be reached at rlhunziker@gmail.com.

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COP28’s Unrealistic Tripling of Nuclear Power

Photo by Ondrej Bocek on Unsplash
Photo by Ondrej Bocek on Unsplash

COP28’s Unrealistic Tripling of Nuclear Power

By Robert Hunziker

UN climate conferences since 1992 have failed to follow thru with results, as CO2 emissions continue higher and higher with every passing year. In fact, post climate conference impact of adopted proposals has become something 0f an inside joke. The most recent conference, COP28, embraced nuclear power as a godsend challenging climate change.

“Triple Nuclear Power” still echoes throughout the halls of COP28. If one stands at the podium in the convention center now empty and listens intently, echoes reverberate “triple nuclear power” spewing out of red-faced maniacs from over 20 countries that committed to tripling nuclear power to bail our global asses out of a crazed climate system of epic proportions.

The US, UK, UAE, and others signed a declaration. Since they couldn’t budge oil and gas, it was decided to favor nuclear power as a surrogate for fixing the rip snorting global heating imbroglio found from pole to pole, from ocean to ocean. It’s real, it’s palpable; it’s now, much earlier than forecasts, as 1.5C prematurely comes to surface during irregular episodes.

Yet, according to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the declaration by 22 countries calling for a tripling of nuclear energy by 2050 is more fantasy than reality: “Even at best, a shift to invest more heavily in nuclear energy over the next two decades could actually worsen the climate crisis, as cheaper, quicker alternatives are ignored for more expensive, slow-to-deploy nuclear reactors.” (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Dec. 13th, 2023)

Building nuclear power facilities has a long history that unfortunately casts a doubtful shadow over the idea of tripling by 2050. A now-famous plan by Princeton University in 2004 called for a “stabilization wedge” to avoid one billion tons of carbon emissions per year by 2055 by building 700 large nuclear reactors over 50 years.

In 2022, there were 416 operating reactors in the world. Starting in 2005 when the Princeton plan was announced, it would have meant building 14 reactors per year, assuming all existing reactors continued to function. However, over the 50-year cycle aging reactors and those going into retirement would ultimately require 40 new reactors per year. But throughout the entire history of nuclear power, on average 10 nuclear power plants connected to the electricity grid per year, and the number of new units was only 5 per year from 2011-2021.

Once again, like the sticky issue of direct carbon capture, achieving the scale of proposed solutions to climate change’s biggest weapon, or global warming, is beyond reality. Talk is cheap.

Meanwhile less expensive safer wind and solar easily trounce nuclear power’s newly installed output, by a country mile, to wit:

New nuclear energy capacity 2000-2020 42 GWe

New wind capacity from 2000-2020 605 GWe

New solar capacity from 2000-2020 578 GWe

Nuclear costs are prohibitively high: It’ll cost $15 trillion to triple nuclear capacity, assuming existing reactors continue to function, which will not be the case, raising this big bet well over $15T. Who’s putting up $15T?

And is there enough time to triple by 2050? From design to projected operation of the NuScale VOYGR plant takes 13 years. According to the International Energy Agency, the design and build phase for a country’s first nuclear reactor is 15 years. Several countries that signed on to the declaration to triple nuclear power are newbies.

According to a Foreign Policy article, Dec. 13th 2023 entitled: COP28’s Dramatic But Empty Nuclear Pledge: several reasons for skepticism about the nuclear energy triple buildout were enumerated, concluding: “The combination of macroeconomic pressures and regulatory restrictions means that neither pledges such as those made at COP28 nor memorandums of understanding with various industries, utilities, and governments should give anyone much confidence that a major expansion of nuclear energy is forthcoming.”

Nuclear expert Mycle Schneider, the lead author of the prestigious World Nuclear Industry Status Report (500 pgs.) now in in its 18th edition known for its fact-based approach on details of operation, construction, and decommissioning of the world’s reactors was recently interviewed by the Bulletin: Schneider’s publication is considered the landmark study of the industry.

Regarding NuScale, the US-based company that develops America’s flagship SMR (Small Nuclear Reactors), the company initially promised in 2008 to start generating power by 2015. As of 2023, they haven’t started construction of a single reactor. They do not have a certification license for the model they promoted for a Utah municipality. NuScale’s six module facility would cost $20,000 per kilowatt installed, twice as expensive as the most expensive large-scale reactors in Europe. And SMRs will generate disproportionate amounts of nuclear waste. No bargain here, assuming it even works efficiently enough, which is doubtful.

Schneider: “The entire logic that has been built up for small modular reactors is with the background of climate change emergency. That’s the big problem we have.” A sense of urgency cannot be met: “Considering the status of development, we’re not going to see any SMR generating power before the 2030s. It’s very clear: none. And if we are talking about SMRs picking up any kind of substantial amounts of generating capacity in the current market, if ever, we’re talking about the 2040s at the very earliest.”

Schneider on COP’s pledge to triple nuclear power: “From an industrial point of view, to put this pledge into reality. To me, this pledge is very close to absurd, compared to what the industry has shown.”

Looked at another way: “It took 70 years to bring global nuclear capacity to the current level of 370 gigawatts (GW), and the industry must now select technologies, raise finance and develop the rules to build another 740 GW in half that time… Why would anyone spend a single dollar on a technology that, if planned today, won’t even be available to help until 2035-2045?’ said Mark Jacobson, an energy specialist at Stanford University.” (Source: Nuclear Sector Must Overcome Decades of Stagnation to Meet COP28 Tripling, Reuters, Dec. 7, 2023) How about $15 trillion?

COP28 did not deliver on phase down of fossil fuels, and it’ll likely miss on tripling nuclear power. But once the results are finally known, it’s too late. The heat’s already on.

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This article was originally published on December 22, 2023 © Counterpunch
Robert Hunziker lives in Los Angeles and can be reached at rlhunziker@gmail.com.

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Global Warming Slices and Dices Greenland

Photo by Annie Spratt on Unsplash
Photo by Annie Spratt on Unsplash

 

Global Warmng Slices and Dices Greenland

By Robert Hunziker

Northern Greenland is under attack by global warming at the same time as delegates to COP28 heap praise on a purported landmark deal to transition out of fossil fuels but beware of the true meaning behind the language. Its disingenuousness is a stamp of approval for much more climate upheaval imprinted onto one more UN Conference of the Parties, COP flop.

According to Dr. Friederike Otto of Imperial College London: “The lukewarm agreement reached at COP28 will cost every country, no matter how rich, no matter how poor. Everyone loses. It’s hailed as a compromise, but we need to be very clear what has been compromised. The short-term financial interests of a few have again won over the health, lives and livelihoods of most people living on this planet.” (COP28: Landmark Deal to Transition Away from Fossil Fuels Agreed- As It Happened, The Guardian, Dec. 13th 2023)

Down to Earth’s publication d/d Dec. 14, 2023 hit the nail on the head re COP28: “Despite the hottest summer in 120,000 years, the oil, gas, coal, and farming companies that are heating the planet can continue to expand production for the foreseeable future.”

Meanwhile, new research has identified extremely disturbing deep trouble brewing in Greenland: Three of eight major ice shelves in the northern region have collapsed or retreated, leaving five ice shelves as gigantic corks holding back major glaciers from rapidly flowing into the sea, in turn, raising sea levels beyond comfort levels. The three biggest are Petermann, Ryder, and Nioghalvfierbrae. This threesome alone equals 3.6 feet of sea level rise. (Source: Alarming Collapse of Greenland Ice Shelves Sparks Warning of Sea Level Rise, LiveScience, November 2023)

A separate study by Oden Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences/The University of Texas found Greenland’s glaciers melting 100 times faster than previously thought. (Source: K Schulz, et al, An Improved and Observationally Constrained Melt Rate Parameterization for Vertical Ice Fronts of Marine Terminating Glaciers, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 49, Issue 18, Sept. 20, 2022)

Moreover, according to the Oden study: “The melting of the Greenland ice sheet is a major predictor of sea level rise. This frozen stretch of glaciers is the second largest on Earth and covers about 80% of the Nordic nation. If it melts entirely, as it did at the height of the Eemian interglacial period about 125,000 years ago, global sea levels could rise by 20 feet—or approximately 6.1 meters.”

An entire meltdown would take centuries, but we’re only concerned with the first several feet which will likely happen this 21st century, enough to flood coastal cities, for example, wiping out Miami Beach, unless Florida encircles the entire state with a gigantic seawall creating a medieval city/state moat.

For as long as anybody can remember, the eight ice shelves in the northern region of Greenland were always stable. However, stability has suddenly disintegrated, according to the report: “We show that since 1978, ice shelves in North Greenland have lost more than 35% of their total volume, three of them collapsing completely. For the floating ice shelves that remain we observe a widespread increase in ice shelf mass losses.” (Source: R. Millan, et al, Rapid Disintegration and Weakening of Ice Shelves in North Greenland, Nature Communications, November 2023)

There’s no emphasis required to know that COP28’s greenwashing compromise and the global warming threat to Greenland are not only interrelated but really bad news. And, once again, it exposes the hollowness of annual UN Conference of the Parties (COP) that should address the compelling issue of excessive CO2 emissions creating a blanket trapping global heat. Ipso facto, Greenland’s glaciers, 100 times faster, start filling up the oceans. This, in turn, creates the mystery of all mysteries as nobody knows how high, or when, sea level rise overwhelms coastal metropolises. But based upon the feebleness of 30+years of COP meetings that are attended by world leaders (154 heads of state at COP28), it looks dismal.

Amongst the referenced ice shelves, the Petermann ice shelf is a focal point. It lies at the seaward end of a deep sub-ice canyon that could open-up ocean penetration into the center of the entire Greenland ice sheet. The initial step to such a horrifying prospect would be loss of Peterman’s ice shelf.

“Ice shelves are the parts of an ice sheet that float on the water, preventing glaciers on the land from slipping into and melting in the ocean, which would increase sea levels. If the glaciers the North Greenland ice shelves support were to collapse, sea levels could rise by nearly 7 feet (2.1 meters).” (LiveScience report)

Therefore, the Millan scientific analysis should raise eyebrows of policymakers to the necessity of immediate powerful mitigation measures, not mealymouthed halfway-commitments that are broadcast as “landmarks,” oh, please! Yet brokenheartedly, the recently concluded Dubai 28th annual UN climate conference did not address the issue of excessive CO2 emissions forcing increased warming, other than to stress “transitioning” out of fossil fuels pretty much on a ho-hum basis. This approach has not worked for more than 30 years of COP meetings, frustration reigns supreme. According to COP28 president Al-Jaber, COP28 is a “true victory,” but “his comments clash with reactions by scientists who have praised parts of the UAE consensus but criticized its vague, weak and caveated language on fossil fuels, which are the main cause of climate change.” (The Guardian, Dec. 13th)

As a result of decades of weak COPs, there’s a price to be paid: “We are heading toward an ice-shelf-free Northern Hemisphere.” (Millan) The implications are horrendous and impossible to describe and based upon the results of COP28, a major question going forward is whether adaptation measures, such as tall seawalls, can be erected ahead of rising sea levels?

The results of too much ocean heat (oceans absorb 80-90% of planetary heat) entering underneath the ice shelves has been studied in detail by scientists based at institutions in France, the US, and Denmark, using satellite data, ocean observations, and climate modeling to measure changes in the ice shelves’ spatial area and thickness. Grounding lines where the ice shelves come aground were evaluated. The areas where the floating shelves end, and the grounded glacier begins are retreating inland across nearly all the shelves, a key sign of weakening. This is a prime example of the nemesis of global warming fueled by rising CO2 emissions at work. COP28 was supposed to deal with issues like this. It did not.

As previously mentioned, Greenland’s ice shelf melt down is 100 times faster than expectations by the scientists, as of 2022. It’s literally impossible to drive a car 100 times faster than cruising speed; it cannot physically be done; yet humongous ice shelves are melting 100 times faster. It’s something to think about.

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This article was originally published on December 15, 2023 © Counterpunch
Robert Hunziker lives in Los Angeles and can be reached at rlhunziker@gmail.com.

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